Resources are indispensable for economic activity and the wealth of humanity.To achieve sustainable development resources must be consumed thoughtfully to ensure to what degree and in which way they end up as waste and emissions. In relation to the environment and health the objective of this study is to investigate how to create indicators for:

As a result of a growing world-population, increasing material consumption in the rich countries, and the wish of poorer countries to increase their wealth, the withdrawal of resources and the resulting damage to the environment are increasing. Furthermore the fight for control of resources has historically resulted in international conflicts andwars.

– the specific chemical characteristics of substances in small quantities

– the quantitative effect of large amounts (material flows, energy flows and use of

land)

At the input side of the German economy they identified 20,000 entry points and 200 substances. At the output side they estimated 2 million exit points and about 1.5 million substances. They also suggested a method for categorising land use according to the degree to which the land is dominated by humans. Land uses are divided into four categories: nature, extensive and ecological agriculture, intensive agriculture and city areas.

1) public health

2) climate change and clean energy

3) management of resources

4) poverty and social expulsion

5) ageing and demographic features

6) mobility, land-use and territorial development.

The material elements of the earth are almost constant. The earth can be divided into the outer spheres – atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere – and the core.

The biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere are very thin outer layers of the globe, whereas the core is more than 99.9% of the earth volume and mass. Thus the goal of sustainable development is to keep the outer thin layers of the earth in a good and healthy condition taking care of the organic life in these thin layers.

More than 90% of the atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere consists of the fourelements H, O, N and C. Elements with a higher atomic mass than Fe are rare on the earth, since these elements have their origin from super nova explosions and neutron stars, whereas elements lighter than Fe (and Fe) are created by normal stars like the sun.

Thus the metals Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca and Fe are very common on earth, whereasmetals like Cu, Zn, Ag, Cd, Hg and Pb are rare. During evolution, organic life has been used to the common metals, whereas the more rare metals can be toxic to organic life,especially in their ionic forms.

The non-metallic elements N, P, S and Cl are very common on earth, whereas As, Se, Br and I are rare. The non-ionic form of the halogens – F, Cl, Br and I – have high oxidation potentials and are very reactive to organics. Most of their organic compounds are toxic to life.

Minerals are geologically often divided into granite and ores and subdivided according to their chemical and structural composition: elements, sulphides, halogen compounds, oxygen compounds, carbonates, sulphates, silicates and organic minerals.

For resource purposes minerals are often divided into metallic minerals and non-metallic minerals, due to their refining, use and economic value. Thus clay is listed as a non-metallic mineral although clay minerals contain aluminium and silicium and often other metals too, since clay has a capacity for ionexchange.

It is important to measure resources because of:

Scarcity occurs when demand exceeds supply. Humans strive to control resources,and scarcity results in price increases and sometimes in conflicts and wars.

Resources, which are interesting in a Danish perspective, can be listed and categorised according to the UN SEEA-system modified into which part of nature they originate from

Resources can be divided into non-renewable resources (fossil fuels and minerals) and renewable resources (biotic resources, water, nitrogen, oxygen). The distinction between renewable and non-renewable resources is a matter of time perspective. In a very long time perspective – 500 millions of years – resources such as fossil fuels and minerals are renewable whereas flora and fauna are not renewable, but the distinction used in this paper, is that resources, which can be renewed by nature in less than 300 years are renewable. This means that some forests, trees, coral reefs and deep ground waters are non-renewable resources.

The amount of resources available to man (the reserves) can be defined as:

1) for renewable resources: nature’s regeneration of new resources (t/year)

2) for non-renewable resources:

To delimit those material flows which have an essential impact on environment and health, it is useful to start with the concept of sustainable development. Focusing on welfare, health and environment the following criteria for sustainability can be posed:

A) The basic needs for food, clean drinking water, housing, clothes, education and social relations shall be met for every human being, and poverty is unacceptable. Nevertheless wealth is today unevenly distributed globally with among 1.2 billion people earning less than 1 $ per day in 1998 as estimated by the World Bank (2000)

B) Every human being has the right to a healthy life, which means hygienic, safe surroundings, healthy food, healthy housing, and access to healthcare and medicine.

C) The ecological space (carrying capacity) for emissions into nature must not be exceeded. The ecological space for emissions can be defined as the emissions, which nature can convert and which do not change the quality of nature to an unacceptable degree.

E) The ecological space for renewable resources must not be exceeded. The exploitation of renewable resources shall be less than or equal to nature’s regeneration of new resources. Renewable resources shall be protected against pollution, destruction and fragmentation (to such a degree that their capacity of regenerating non-polluted renewable resources is not reduced)

Parts of nature, resources or ecosystems, which are severely threatened, exploited or polluted beyond the carrying capacity of nature are (the criteria A-D are in brackets):

(A, B, E)

It appears from this that the same parts of nature are both essential for welfare, health, resources and emissions (recipients). Really the interactions between man and nature are extremely complex and demand a huge scientific effort to search out the interlinkage between material flows and their manyfold impacts on the environment and health.

According to the concept of sustainable development the consequences are estimated for many future generations. The longer the projection period into the future, the greater the uncertainty – which is a well-known result of chaos-theory. The time perspective – dependent on the type of consequence – should be about 500 years from now.

The precautionary principle must be used. If the consequences of a material flow or depletion of a natural resource are partly unknown, life and the environment shall benefit from the uncertainty.

It is important to assess:

The relationship of cause and effect is not an easy issue in sustainability research due to the complexity of the dynamic systems involved. Since the uncertainty limits predictability, the precautionary principle is all the more important. It is also important to evaluate if the consequences are reversible or irreversible. Irreversible consequences are more severe than reversible consequences. In this context irreversible changes are not strictly thermodynamically understood, but should be understood as changes, which humanity is not able to reverse, for example, 1) recollect toxic substances, which are dispersed into nature, or 2) re-establish ocean-flows or 3) recreate species, which have been eliminated.

The consequences of the material flows and degradation of resources can be evaluated in relation to the carrying capacity of nature. The load, which is equal to the carrying capacity of nature, is often called the ecological space. The more the carrying capacity or the ecological space is exceeded the more nature is affected. The more nature is affected the greater are the consequences in the risk assessment. Therefore in a risk assesment an investigation of the material flows and resource degradation, compared to the carrying capacity, is essential.

The material flows, which have the most severe impact on environment and health in Denmark, are delimited by a risk assessment:

Though Danish central powerplants treat combustion gases for particles, sulphur and nitrogen compounds, the combustion of fossil fuels also causes the following severe impacts on environment and health:

The exhaustion period for Danish oil and gas resources is estimated to about 30 years. Since there will be no Danish oil and gas resources for the next generations, the carrying capacity for resources is exceeded on a national level. Global oil and gas resources are estimated at 50 years, which also tells us that the carrying capacity is exceeded, since there will globally not be enough oil and gas resources for the next generations.

Energy savings and renewable energy sources are therefore essential for sustainable development.

Still more dangerous chemicals are developed, produced, used and dispersed into nature,and the authorities are not able to assess, classify and regulate all these new substances.In Denmark and the EU around 30,000 different chemicals are in use. The risks of these chemicals differ and only a few, until now, have been assessed for risk by the EU.The slowly biodegradable and bioaccumulating chemicals will be accumulated in the food chain. By this process mammals and humans accumulate a mixed cocktail of unhealthy substances. Dangerous chemicals can cause cancers, allergies, hormonal disorders, nerve and brain conditions, reduced reproductive capacity, and deformed babies. The dispersion of these substances in nature is irreversible, since they can never be recalled. Thus, since the consequences for the environment and health are severe and the dispersion is irreversible, the reduction of dangerous chemical production and emissions must have a very high priority.

Emission of nitrogen compounds causes:

The sources of nitrogen emission are agriculture and combustion processes. Also wastewater is a source of nitrogen, but in Denmark nitrogen is removed from most wastewater. Most nitrogen comes from agriculture from the use of fertilisers and manure. In Denmark groundwater is the source of all water supply. Nitrate concentrations in Danish groundwater are increasing and more and more wells have water with nitrate concentrations exceeding WHO health limits. Too high a human intake of nitrate causes cancer in the stomach and the blood disease called ‘blue babies’.

Eutrophication of the inlets and coastal zones causes oxygen depletion and more frequent widespread killing of life in coastal zones and hydrogen sulphide formation. The ecological space for emission of nitrogen to surface water and groundwater is exceeded. The cause-effect relationship of nitrogen and eutrophication/nitrate in groundwater is scientifically established. And since the consequences of nitrogen emission are severe to both environment and health, reductions in nitrogen emissions must have a high priority.

Globally human beings confiscate more and more natural areas for their needs,which causes tremendous destruction and reduction of the ecosystems and biodiversity.

Cutting down, fragmentation and cultivating of forests destroys the forest ecosystem, reduces biodiversity, increases the risk of floods and reduces the uptake of greenhouse gases. Transforming natural ecosystems into agricultural areas causes pollution of the groundwater with nitrates and pesticides, eutrophication of the lakes, the inlets and the sea, turns the natural watercourses into channels and increases the risk of flood and erosion. Fragmenting the ecosystems by roads and railways reduces the biodiversity. In Denmark, natural ecosystems and biodiversity have been seriously affected and reduced during two periods over the last 2,000 years. Firstly, transforming forests into medieval agricultural systems, and secondly, transforming medieval agriculture into industrialised agriculture through the use of pesticides and fertilisers, and transforming handcrafts into an energy intensive industrial society based on fossil fuels. Thus in Denmark the ecological space for ecosystems and biodiversity has been over-exploited. The remaining natural ecosystems are limited in scale and too much land is used for agriculture and involves the use of pesticides and nitrogen.

In Figure 1 a model for material flows in a global or national economy (without import and export) is shown:

The economy is divided into three sectors: production (P), consumption (C) and water and wastewater treatment (W). Those materials, which are accumulated in each sector of the economy are symbolised by ‘M’ with an index, which symbolises the sector:

Resources, products, waste:

p: products produced (t/y)

c: recirculated materials from the waste and wastewater sector to the production sector (t/y)

Emissions:

h: unused ( or hidden) flows from resource extraction (t/year)

The sector of waste-and wastewater treatment also uses energy and materials from the production sector, but these are relatively small and are neglected, so as not to lose simplicity. All these variables are time-dependent. Each material flow in Figure 1 can be divided into three flows according to its state: solid, liquid and gas. Also the material flows can be divided and marked according to which resource they originate from. The model is defined in flows and masses but can also be used for flows per person and mass per person by dividing all flows and masses by world population or number of inhabitants per nation. If the model is defined as per person, the variables can be defined as a statistical distribution and thereby, for example, can reveal which part of the population is using most resources.

Expanding the model in Figure 1 with imports and exports and assuming that nowaste is traded; yields the model in Figure 2:

where:

Figure 2 shows:

The relations between MFA-indicators and the model in Figure 2 are:

Input:

Accumulation:

Output:

where:

Resource efficiency : = γ needs/ r resources

which is also called ‘the productivity of resources’.

Resource efficiency can be defined as resources related to economic turnover, area or service units. Defining resource efficiency in purely physical terms and in terms of material flows gives:

Resource efficiency: γ= p/r

where:

p: material flow from production sector into consumption sector

The resources can be either resources exclusive or inclusive unused flows during resource extraction:

Waste-and wastewater treatment :

Total after resource extraction :

Energy efficiency:

Water efficiency:

Use of toxic chemicals:

Use of heavy metals:

The resource flow for toxic chemicals is the resource flow of virgin synthesised toxic chemicals.

which is also called the ‘resource intensity of production’. For example: Productefficiency for water:

where w = emissions from production.

Including import and export, Figure 2, in the expressions for resource efficiency:

Resource efficiency for a whole nation inclusive of imports and exports also can beexpressed by a combination of the model in Figure 2 and MFA-indicators:

Resource efficiency exclusive unused flows:

Resource efficiency inclusive unused flows:

– economic turnover ( tons/GDP) which is called economic resource intensity,for example: fossil fuels used per GDP

– service-unit ( tons/service-unit), service-unit intensity (MIPS) for example material use per person transported per year

– area (tons/(area × year), which is called area resource intensity, for example tons pesticides used per ha per year

– per person (tons/person × year), per person resource intensity, for example tons fossil fuels used per person per year.

Decreasing economic resource intensity is also called economic decoupling and shows to what degree economic growth is decoupled from resource use. Material flows per service unit (MIPS) are the closest measure to the definition of resource efficiency, since it measures resource use in relation to human services. Although MIPS are very useful at the product and unit service level, it is difficult to do aggregated MIPS calculations for a whole national economy. Area resource intensity expresses how much an area is loaded by material flows. Material flow per person is not really an efficiency measure, but a measure of how much material one person in average is turning over.

Other measures for efficiency are:

– resource productivity ( GDP/tons) or eco-efficiency, which is the reciprocal value of economic resource intensity

– percentage or part of, for example percentage of dangerous chemicals in products, which ends up in the waste or percentage renewable energy of total energy

These indicators express a relation between two variables in different categories of the DPSIR-model. For example, the resource-intensity (r/GDP) expresses the relation between the resource-flow in the ‘pressure’ category and the gross national economic turnover in the ‘Driving force’-category.

Lifetime, T, for materials in a sector of society is defined as the amount of materials stored in the sector, M, divided by the outgoing material flows from the sector, m.

For stationary conditions we obtain:

T= M/m

For dynamic conditions the lifetime is found by integration over the whole lifetime of the mass flow:

In this context, indicators should show if the material flows approximate sustainabledevelopment. The value of the indicator can be compared to the politically defined target of sustainable development and the distance to target can be calculated. This distance to target can be used to decide politically the appropriate regulation of the economy,resource exploitation and the emissions, to minimise the distance to target. Hereby the indicator becomes the output signal in a regulation circuit to decide the error (distance to target) and to optimise the regulation of the system.

1 Indicator: name, definition, unit of measurement, placement in the Indicator Set

2 Policy relevance: purpose, relevance to sustainable development, internationalconventions and agreements, international and national targets, links to other indicators

3 Methodological description: underlying definitions and concepts, measurement methods, limitations of the indicator, status of the methodology, alternative definitions/indicators

4 Assessment of data: data needed to compile the indicator, national and international data availability and sources, data references.

5 Agencies involved in the development of the indicator, other contributing organisations

6 References: readings, internet sites

For the future choice of indicators for EU countries, such indicators should be chosen, which are recommended by the UN, OECD and EU to compare national figures with international figures. Additionally specific national indicators should be chosen to supplement the international indicators.

It is recommended to use the classification of resources, which is proposed by the UN in the SEEA 2000 system. It is also recommended to put material flows in relation to:

– number of inhabitants: world population or national population

– the economic turnover such as BFI, BNI or BFI

It is further recommended to structure the indicator-system as an indicator-pyramid,see Figure 3.

At the top of the pyramid are a small number of indicators for the material flows,energy flows and area use, which have the most severe influence on environment and health. At the bottom of the pyramid are a huge number of indicators for specific material flows in specific lines of business.

The indicator pyramid can be further structured by a formal indicator system according to the mathematical model in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the definitions of resource efficiency and lifetime and the use of area. The formal indicator-system is shown in Table 6 with the following symbols:

r: resource flows

w: sum of emissions

p: flow of products

c: recirculation into production

M: amount of materials in consumption sector

BFI: gross factor income

N: number of inhabitants

K: total capital (floating plus fixed)

Resources can be calculated before and after resource extraction. If resources are calculated before resource extraction, the sum of emissions must include unused flows.

The changes by time of the indicators will be added as derived indicators. Hereby rises or falls of the indicators and the speed of change are shown. Thus it can be verified if the indicator is approaching the target and if the speed of the approach is as desired. Concrete indicators organised by the levels of the indicator pyramid, Figure 3, and the formal indicator system, Table 6, are proposed for Denmark in Table 7:

Aggreg.material consumption       TMR   t/per/y    DMI                                           Biomass, minerals, f.fuels

                                                                      TMC                                          Biomass, minerals, f.fuels

                                                                       NAS                                           Biomass, minerals, f.fuels

                                                                       TMO                                          Biomass, minerals, f.fuels

                                                                                                                         Coal

                                                                       Fossil fuels                                  Oil

                                                                                                                         Gas

Total primary energy consumption PEC   J/per/y    Renewable  energy                           Sun

                                                                                                                          Wind                                                                

                                                                                                                          Water

                                                                                                                          Underground

                                                                                                                          Biomass

                                                                                                                          High risk

                                                                          Nuclear energy                             Low risk

Area of almost unaffected nature         An/A     %         Almost unaffected nature               Forest

                                                                                                                           Meadows

                                                                                                                            Bogs

                                                                          Almost unaffected land                  Cultivated forest

                                                                                                                          Meadows and bogs

                                                                                                                           Ecological agriculture

                                                                Almost unaffected  inlets and coastal zones   Lakes

                                                                                                                           Streams

                                                                                                                            Coastal zones

Dangerous flow consumption              DFC      g/per/y      Dangerous chemicals               High risk

                                                                                                                            Medium risk

                                                                                                                            Low risk

                                                                                  Heavy metals                        High risk (Hg, Cd)

                                                                                                                            Medium risk (Ni, Pb, Cr)

                                                                                                                            Low risk (Cu, Zn)

                                                                                   Radioactive substances          High risk

                                                                                                                            Low risk

Water con-sumption                                                       By households

                                                                                  By enterprises

Nitrogen consumption                                                    Extracted indust. from air

                                                                                   Extracted biolog. from air

The indicators in the upper levels, A, B and C, are indicators for aggregated and disaggregated material consumption, energy consumption and area use, which weredelimited by the risk assessment and the exceeding of the ecological space

The indicators in the lower levels of the indicator pyramid are:

– level ‘D’: indicators for lines of business structured by the formal indicatorsystem,Table 6

– level ‘E’: indicators for specific material flows in specific lines of businessstructured by the formal indicator system, Table 6

The indicator system in Table 7 can also be used for other countries, if some of the indicators are replaced into a higher or lower level, depending on which environmental problems are most severe in the specific country. For arid countries water consumption should be in level ‘A’ instead of in level ‘B’.

The criteria for sustainable development can be formally expressed:

and by differentiating:

which tells us, that to eliminate global material poverty and increase the global material standard of living, the sum of multiplicates of resource efficiency, lifetime of products and resource extraction has to increase.

Differentiating we obtain:

Indicators for total material-flows in Denmark 1990 are calculated from Figure 2:

The IF-factors are estimated:

Resource efficiency exclusive unused flows:

To increase resource efficiency in Denmark it is most important to reduce consumptionof fossil fuels and material use for construction and building.

Examples of calculating indicators for resource efficiency in level D in the indicator pyramid are shown for the furniture line of business in Denmark:

The difference between resource efficiency on 0,41 and 0,46 is caused by the inaccuracy of the data.

For the whole lifecycle of furniture in Denmark inclusive resource extraction at home and abroad we obtain:

Thus resource efficiency is much smaller for the whole life cycle (0,11) than for the furniture line of business itself (0,41). The reason why is primarily the material use and unused flows in resource extraction.

Calculating the energy efficiency for the whole life cycle:

eB

Thus energy efficiency is much greater for the whole life cycle (138 tons furniture/TJ) than for the furniture line of business itself (41 tons furniture/TJ). The reason is that the energy in the wood is regained by incineration of the furniture waste.

By means of a risk assessment and using the concept of ecological space the consumption of resource flows with the greatest impacts on environment and health in Denmark can be delimited to:

Area use can be used as an indicator for ecosystems and biodiversity.

Resource efficiency can be defined in terms of material flows only, and can becalculated for the whole society with and without unused flows, each sector of the societyand each line of business as well. By relating material flows to economic turnover,service units or number of inhabitants, other measures of efficiency can be defined.

An indicator system consisting of an indicator pyramid structured by formal indicators is recommended. At the top of the indicator pyramid are indicators for total aggregated material requirement, TMR, total primary energy consumption and the material flows and area use, which have the most severe impact on environment and health. At the bottom of the pyramid are indicators for specific material flows in specific lines of business. The formal indicators represent flows of resources and emissions, resources and emissions related to ecological space, economic turnover and number ofinhabitants as well as resource efficiency, lifetime of materials and material welfare.

The path to sustainable development goes through dematerialisation, detoxification, increased resource efficiency and lifetime of products, protection of natural resources against pollution, defragmentation and destruction.

The resource efficiency for total material flows was calculated to 0.07 without unused flows and to 0.04 with unused flows for Denmark 1990.To increase resource efficiency and decrease emissions it is most important to reduce use of energy and fossil fuels and to reduce accumulation of materials in the technosphere.

For the furniture line of business in Denmark the resource efficiency for materials was calculated to be 0,41 for the furniture line of business itself, but 0,11 for the whole life cycles of furniture including unused flows during resource extraction. The energy efficiency was calculated to be 41 tons furniture/TJ for the furniture line of business itself but 138 t furniture/ TJ for the whole life cycle of furniture including regaining of energy by waste incineration.

The work was partly supervised by a committee managed by Lone Lykke Nielsen and Lone Kielberg from the DEPA, who together with Lars Mortensen, Jacob Juul, Ole Dahl and Kirsten Pommer provided helpful advice. Other parts of the project were on MFAcounting for Denmark by Ole Gravgaard Pedersen (Danish Statistics) and criticism on MFA by Inge Røbke and Michael Søgaard Jensen (Danish Technical University).The participants at two European workshops during the project gave many good ideas,inspiration, and dialogue on the paper. Special thanks to Joachim Spangenberg (SERISustainable Europe Research Institute), John Hille (Ide`banken), Helga Weisz (Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies), Stefan Bringezu and Helmut Schütz (Wuppertahl Institute), who did much of the work on which this paper is based and who was very helpful in the process of commenting on and adjusting the paper.