HOME¦ ABOUT US ¦ PAPERS¦ CONSULTING¦ PRODUCTS ¦ CONTACT ¦ REFERENCES ¦ RESEARCH¦CLIMATE <TD style="BACKGROUND: url(/templates/p5009/images/content-left-pattern.gif)" vAl   Climate change mitigation must be intensified   Karsten Krogh Andersen, 24 th. nov 2008.www.disud.dk   Climate change is at the boarder of coming out of control, and we are long behind the UN target.     The UN Climate Panel writes in its report of 2007, that mitigation of climate change is urgent. The longer we wait to reduce the emission of greenhousegases, the larger and more dangerous the climate will change. If dangerous climate change shall be avoided, the emission of greenhouse gases must  begin to decrease latest 2015 globaly, and the rich part of the world has to reduce its emssions by 80-95% during the next 40 years.    The International Energy Agency  foresees, that the worlds energy consumption will increase  by  45%  by 2030, and that global temperature will increase 6 degrees C, which is much higher than calculated by the UN Climate Panel. The UN Climate Panel and the governments across the world have an objective to keep the mean temperature increase of the globe less than 2 degrees C to avoid dangerous climate change. However new research finds that global temperature increase shall be less than 1 degree C to avoid dangerous climate change.     The concentration of  CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from a preindustrial level of  280 ppm  to 380 ppm in 2007. Even if the CO2-concentration was kept on the level of today the temperature would increase because of the inerty and the feedback.mechanisms of the climate system. However the CO2-concentration is rising by 2 ppm per year, and by an increase to  450 ppm the temperature will increase by 1 degree C in the short run.    Thus the globe is close to the socalled  ”tipping point”,  where climate change induces strong feedback effects, by which climate change is accelerating out of control.  Theese  feedback effects are melting of the seaice, melting of the icecaps on Greenland and WestAntarc and melting of the permafrost.   When seaice is melting, the absorbtion of heatradiation from the sun by the ocean is increasing, and an accelerating melting proces is started. The iceshelves, who hold back the inland gletchers, will brake up, and the speed of the gletchers will increase. On the top of the gletchers meltwater wil be formed. The meltwater wil percolate through cracks to the bottom of the gletchers, which will lubricate the bottom of the gletchers, by which the gletchers slide faster to the ocean.   The last 1-2 millioner years have been characterized by alternating ice ages and interglacial periods. The highest level of the oceans in the last half million year was about 5 meter higher than today, but the temperature was max 1 degree higher than today. About 3 million years ago the temperature was abour 3 degrees higher than today and the level of oceans about 25 m higher than today   Melting of the icecaps of iceages mostly have been slow, becaus changes of temperature have been small during sverals thousands of years. However by the end of some iceages the melting of the icecaps have been fast. At the end of the last iceage the level of oceans increased among 20 meters in around 400 years.   An increase of the sealevel by 5-25 m most of the heavy populated low coastal and delta areas of the globe will be flooded such as  New York, London, Shanghai and Bangladesh.    The increasing temperature will bring intensive droughts to Africa, Southern Europe and US, and the rivers will no longer delivere water for the appropriate time for agriculture. Thus production of food will decrease dramatically causing hunger and death.     The UN Climate Panel scenaria A1FI, A2 and A1B  are far outside the conditions which have existed on the planet earth for millions of years. In those scenaria - by a doubling of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphare  the temperature will increase  2- 3 degrees C in year 2100 and 5 - 6 degrees C during the following centuries.   The emisssion from a human on the planet earth is  4,4 tonnes CO2   in average with 20 tonnes/year from a US citizen, 11 tonnes from a dane, 3 tonnes from a chineese and 1 tonne from an indian, see fig. 1:       Fig.1 . Emission of CO2  measured as tonnes carbon /inhabitant/year. ( James Hansen, 2007)     The CO2 , which we discharge today,  will contribute to global warming for several hundreds of  years ahead. Every day we destroy the conditions of life for the coming generations.   The problem is intensified because  4 billion poore  people in China, India, Southamerica etc. want at standard of living as in the rich countries.   To stabilize the climate with an increase of temperature of 1 - 2 degrees C, the world has to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 75%  in avearge  -  and the rich countries by 80 -90% - duringthe next 40 years and  the emsssions have to start decreasing before 2015 on a global scale.   EU has decided to reduce its emssions by   20% in 2020  and by  60-80% in 2050, which is less than recommended by the UN Climate Panel. However the follow up in the member countries is too slow. In Germany new coal power plants are planned, and in Denmark no phasing out of existing coal power plants and no energy savings in transport, agriculture and housing are taking place, see fig. 2:         Fig 2 Emisssions of  CO2 from Denmark in the  period 1990-2006 including ships and aeroplanes   Coal power plants have to be phased out quickly and replaced by renewable energy.   Tranport has to be quickly tranfomed to public transport, low energy and electrical automobiles. The  houses must be insolated further, and use of solar energy, heatpumps and other renewable energysources must be enhanced.    The industry must produce with a much less use of energy, and energy efficiency has to increse dramatically. The agriculture neds to reduce its emssions of greenhouse gases from landuse and animals, and more forest has to be growed and existing forests preserved.    The worldwide economic crisis could be turned into prosperity by massive investment in energy savings and renewable energy. Such investments would create a new industrial revolution and at the same time save the planet.