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Speed up. Greenhousegases must be reduced now.

 

Allready in 2015 the rich part of the world must reduce their outlets by 20 percent. A view at prehistorie shows, that we can´t go on as before.  

 

The emission of greenhousegases must be reduced earlier and more, than previously assumed, if catastrophic climate changes shall be avoided.

 

The burning of coal, oil and gas together with transferring forest into farmland have increased the atmospharic content of greenhousegases - especially carbondioxide. The greenhousegases brake the  radiation of heat from earth and thereby heating the globe causing climate change. 

 

The concentration of carbondioxide in the atmosphare has increased to  387 ppm ( parts per milllion) from 280 ppm before the  industriel revolution and increases by  2,2 ppm per year. The concentration today is the highest for the last 650.000 years and is propably the highest for the last  20 million years.

 

14.500 years ago the last iceage was at its max, and the icecaps began to melt. During a few hundred years  during the socalled  Bølling-Allerød warming period the concentration of carbondioxide increased by approx. 40 ppm, the temperature in Greenland increased  around 15 degrees, and the sealevel rose by  5 meter. At the max speed the sealevel rose by around 3 meter in 100 years.

 

125.000 years ago in the last interglacial period  – the Eem period –  the concentration of carbondioxide was around  280 ppm and the sealevel was around  5 meter higher than today. A lesser icecap on Greenland contributed around  1,5 meter and less ice on Westantarctic contributed by around 3,5 meter.

 

3 million years ago  the  concentration of carbondioxide was about  320 ppm, the mean  globale temperature at the buttom of the oceanes was about  3 degrees warmer than today, there were no ice on Greenland, less ice on Antarctic  and the level of ocean was propably  25 meter higher than today.  

 

If we go even longer back in time, a decreasing concentration of  CO2 propably was the main reason for the cooling of the earth, which began around  50 million years ago according to   James Hansen from NASA. There was no ice on the  planet earth , the temperature in the deep ocean was about   12  degrees higher than today, and the sealevel was about 65 meter higher than today. Not untill the concentration of  CO2 decreased to  450 ± 100 ppm aboout 35 million years ago, the temperature in the deep ocean decreased to about  5  degrees higher than today, the  Antarctis started to be covered by ice, and the sealevel started to decrease. 

 

These prehistorical  data of climate - espcially from drillings in seabuttom and icecaps - thus indicate, that the planet earth will approximate no icecaps and a  sealevel  rise around 65 meters, if the concentration of carbondioxide rises more than the level of today.  According to James Hansen the atmospharic concentration of carbondioxide must be reducered from todays  387 ppm to at least 350 ppm, if humanity shal preserve a planet, like the one civilisation and life on earth is adapted.

 

The global warming caused by the increasing concentration of greenhousegases is amplified by the socalled  feedback mechanisms, which  push  parts of the  climatesystem over  ”tipping points” and ” points of no return”, where irreversible processes push the climate out of control.

 

The most important  self-amplifying feedback mechanisms are evaporation of seawater, melting and collaps of seaice and iceshelfs, decreasing the cover of snow on the northern hemisphare, melting of landbased ice and releasing of  methan and carbondioxide from the melting of tundra and seabuttom.

 

The seaice on the  Northpole is melting with  an accelerating speed in big areas. In 2008 the multiyear seaice melted from an area at the size of  California and Texas together, the Northpole itself became  icefree and the  Westpassage was open for sailing. When the seaice melts, more radiation from the sun is absorbed, and the ocean warms, which makes more ice melt. 

 

When the snowcover on the northern hemisphare decreases and melts earlier each year, more radiation from the sun is absorbed by the surface of the earth. When the icecaps and gletchers withdraw, more radiation from the sun is absorbed by the now icefree earth and the vegetation. Hereby the temperature increases further, and the icecaps on the high mountains, Greenland and Antarctis melt faster. 

 

When the iceshelfes around Antarctic collapse, they can no longer stop the the gletchers behind, and the gletcers will approache the ocean with a higher speed, they will be more exposed to warm seawater and melt faster. Therefor their is a great risk, that the icecap on Westantarctic will melt and collapse. 

 

If the concentration of  greenhousegases in the atmosphare continue to rise, we will experience severe draughts in Africa, Southern Europe, southern USA, parts of South Asia  and Australia. The high mountain gletschers will  melt and no longer deliver meltwater at the right time to the big rivers, who waters the farmland feeding 2-3 billion human beeings. During the next   90 years the sealevel propably will rise 3-6 meters and will together with an increasing number of violente hurricanes cause widespread flooding in the coastal areas, where most of mankind is living. The consequencies will be incredible sufferings, deaths, hunger, epedimics, refugees, wars and collapses of states. 

 

The inerti of the oceanes and icecaps delays the global warming caused by increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. Caused by the allreadey emited carbondioxide the global temperature will increase still 2  degrees celcius and 4 degrees celcius on the northern hemisphare in the future.

 

Since the concentration of atmospharic carbondioxide is beyond the critical level, the global emissions must start decreasing during the next 5 years. Since countries as China and India  can not decrease their emissions of greenhousegases, becaus of their fight against poverty, the rich countries immediatly must decrease their emissions.  Targets only for the year 2050 is not enough, while chargets also for the years 2015 and 2020 are necesarry. The rich part of the world must reduce their emissions about  20% by 2015, 40% by 2020 og 90% by 2050. The global society must have unchanged emissions by  2015 and reduce its emissions about  20% by 2020 and 50% by 2050.

 

The rich part of the world must quickly phase out the use of coal, oil and gas, transfer onto renewable energy such as power from wind, sun, hydro, seawaves, biomass and atomic as well as massive energy savings, increase energy efficiency, grow new forest, preserve rainforest, and change the way of farm and forest operation. Development, test, demonstration and implementation  for these new technologies must be given the best conditions in form of higt taxis on fossil fuels.   These new technologies must fast be spread and used by the developing countries helped by economic support, shorten of the patent preiodes, joint ventures etc. 

  

The COP-15 climate meeting in Copenhagen in december 2009 must focus on taxis on fossil fuels especially in EU, USA, China, India and Brasil by which the  climatefreindly technologies better can compete with fossil fuels to realize a fast transition  to a world without fossil fuels. 

 

Karsten Krogh Andersen, Master of Science, Director, DISUD-Danish Institute for sustainable Development , www.disud.dk.

 

 

    

DISUD • karsten@disud.dk • Environmental consulting

DISUD - Institut for Bæredygtig Udvikling

DISUD - Danish Institute for Sustainable Development